• Tony Bosworth

Early voting numbers as a percentage for our Federal seat of Macquarie - large early turn out

The ABC’s Antony Green – the man with his finger on the pulse of every election – has just released numbers of postal and pre-poll votes as a percentage of the total number of voters.

For Macquarie – which is our Federal seat - some 37.7 percent of eligible voters – so well over a third – have voted early. That’s a large number.

Of those, 12.2% are postal votes, and 25.5% are pre-poll.

With postal votes, anyone opting for that (you can’t apply for postal votes now, the deadline passed at 6pm Wednesday) has to have them in by Friday June 3, so that could slow the final result down, though of course people may get them in quickly.

In the 2019 Federal election it took 16 days after voting closed to announce Labor's Susan Templeman as the winner.

Interesting numbers…what does it mean for the candidates?

Here's what Antony Green says about the voting pattern.

"Postal votes always favour the Coalition as they include several groups with a conservative leaning, including farmers, old and frail voters and members of various smaller religious groups that won’t attend in person voting on a Saturday.

"In recent years pre-polls also tend to favour the Coalition. The question is whether the lean of both vote categories will diminish as more voters join the category.

"In the end, compulsory voting means that early voting just changes when and how people vote, not who they vote for. Nor does it significantly change who votes. Unlike overseas elections, early voting does not change turnout significantly, and it is the change to turnout that is the main political impact of early voting in countries that do not have compulsory voting."

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