• Kevin Pollard & Tony Bosworth

COVID update - Hawkesbury cases continue to rise, active cases dip slightly – record 46 NSW deaths



Welcome to Friday evening and the daily update of COVID numbers across our region.


Here’s an interesting fact to kick us off this evening, out of the official figures so far - if you're fully vaccinated the likelihood of you dying of COVID in NSW is 1 in 15,946, if you're unvaccinated the likelihood of you dying from COVID in NSW is 1 in 822 - 19 times higher.


In the last 4 days – and including today – there have been 896 new cases in the Hawkesbury.


RAT results are still not itemised per postcode and per LGA in today’s figures, so we don’t know which postcodes those positive RATs are in.


And just so you know, our numbers and info guru Kevin Pollard points out today, "hospital and ICU figures from NSW Health do not include the thousands in virtual care or hospital in the home care pathways, nor do they include the huge load presenting to EDs, GPs or the ambulance service. There are approximately 24,200 patients in NSW hospital in the home care pathways, that are not counted in the daily published data".


Kevin adds, "About 2 weeks ago, NSW Health stopped reporting if those who died of COVID had underlying health conditions, or not. 30% of people under 50 have 'underlying health conditions', between 40-70% over 50".

Thanks as always to Kevin Pollard who has crunched the day’s COVID numbers so we have an excellent overview here of the Hawkesbury situation, and further afield too, giving our readers a very detailed picture.



Today’s Hawkesbury numbers:


* 161 new cases recorded in the Hawkesbury in the last 24 hours.


* There are 2251 active COVID cases in the Hawkesbury – down a bit (it was 2261 yesterday).


New Hawkesbury COVID PCR cases in the last 24 hours and postcodes they are in:


* 89 in the 2756 postcode (Windsor, Sackville, Wilberforce, Bligh Park, Clarendon, Ebenezer, Mulgrave, Pitt Town, South Windsor, Freemans Reach, McGraths Hill, Upper Colo, Central Colo, Colo Heights, Lower Portland, Glossodia)

* 37 in the 2753 postcode (Richmond, Richmond Lowlands, Londonderry, Grose Vale, Grose Wold, Bowen Mountain, Hobartville, Yarramundi, Agnes Banks)


* 19 in the 2754 postcode (North Richmond, Tennyson, The Slopes)


* 15 in the 2758 postcode (Bilpin, East Kurrajong, Kurrajong, Kurrajong Heights, Kurrajong Hills, Mountain Lagoon, Wheeny Creek, Mount Tomah, Berambing, Blaxlands Ridge, Devils Wilderness)


* 1 in the 2775 postcode (Lower Macdonald, St Albans)


* 0 in the 2757 postcode (Kurmond)



Total active COVID PCR cases in the Hawkesbury as of 8pm January 20 - and postcodes they are in:


* 1204 in the 2756 postcode (Windsor, Sackville, Wilberforce, etc) - was 1210 yesterday


* 625 in the 2753 postcode (Richmond, Londonderry, Grose Vale, etc) - was 638 yesterday


* 212 in the 2754 postcode (North Richmond, Tennyson, The Slopes) - was 201 yesterday


* 182 in the 2758 postcode (Bilpin, East Kurrajong, etc) - was 180 yesterday


* 22 in the 2757 postcode (Kurmond) - was 26 yesterday


* 15 in the 2775 postcode (Lower Macdonald, St Albans) - was 17 yesterday




Home and global headlines:

* Of the 25,168 new NSW COVID cases today: 15,153 PCR and 10,015 RAT (after a total of 30,825 cases yesterday) in NSW reported to 8pm, Thursday, January 20 - 1307 cases (869 PCR and 438 RAT) are from Nepean Blue Mountains Local Health District, which includes the Hawkesbury.

* Of the 10,015 positive RATs, 8774 were from the previous 7 days and 1241 before that.


* There have been 196,019 positive RAT test results in the last 10 days, which haven't been assigned to a postcode or local government area as an active case, so we’re all in the dark about where they are.


* There were 88,113 NSW PCR COVID processed tests to 8pm last night, compared with the previous days of 73,259, 84,976, 67,549, 85,767 tests.


* 17.19% of the 88,113 NSW PCR tests were positive (15,153).


* The positivity rates were 24.09%, 23.36%, 23.79%, 20.57% on previous days.


* 75% of the 209 in ICU in NSW have Omicron and 25% Delta.


* Of the 2743 patients in hospital in NSW, approximately 80% have Omicron and 20% Delta.


* Australia records a pandemic high 88 COVID deaths today after 60 deaths yesterday.


* Hundreds of childcare centres have temporarily closed across Australia amid COVID. Around 286 centres were closed yesterday, and this time last week 295 centres in NSW were temporarily closed.


* Australia’s Omicron wave has likely peaked in NSW and Victoria, some experts say. However, schools return within 2 weeks so cases could increase.


* An 8-week-old Hunter baby with COVID dies with investigations underway to determine cause of death. The Newcastle Herald reports the child, who had no known underlying conditions, contracted COVID and died about 3 weeks ago. It comes after a COVID-positive SA toddler under the age of 2 died on December 29, 2021.


* The Australian Federal Police (AFP) have launched an investigation into RAT price gouging and are warning individuals and businesses they face 5 years in prison or a $66,000 fine for re-selling RATs for more than 20% of the original retail purchase price. The strike teams have the powers to force individuals or businesses engaged in price gouging to surrender the RATs, which will be sent to the National Medical Stockpile.


* WA will delay its reopening to the rest of Australia. No date has been given for a full re-opening. It was supposed to be February 5. Premier Mark McGowan says it would be “irresponsible and reckless” to do allow people in.


* NSW Health figures show over 3600 new hospital admissions in week up until 3 days ago, far higher than what NSW Health have reported (668).


* Tasmania records its first COVID death (a 90 year woman who was not vaccinated), since April 30, 2020 - 21 months ago.



Current NSW COVID cases in hospital, in ICU, and on a ventilator, plus vaxx status:


In hospital: 2743 (2781, 2,863, 2,850, 2,776 on previous days) - 71.6% fully or triple vaccinated, 2.3% one dose, 26.1% not vaccinated.


In ICU: 209 (212, 217, 209, 203 on previous days) - 54.9% fully or triple vaccinated, 1.2% one dose, 44.9% not vaccinated.


On ventilators: 68 (68, 66, 63, 61 on previous days) of which 8 are on ECMO - 54.9% fully or triple vaccinated, 1.2% one dose, 43.9% not vaccinated. ECMO stands for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. The ECMO machine is similar to the heart-lung by-pass machine used in open-heart surgery. It pumps and oxygenates a patient's blood outside the body, allowing the heart and lungs to rest.


There were 166 people in hospital 37 days ago - 2743 today.


There were 21 people in ICU 37 days ago - 209 today.


There were 7 on ventilator 36 days ago - 68 today.


NSW previous pandemic peaks: 1268 in hospital, 242 in ICU and 123 on a ventilator on 21 September 2021.



NSW COVID deaths – 46 today is another pandemic high – none in the Hawkesbury:

NSW Health is today reporting the deaths of 46 people with COVID- 33 men and 13 women.


7 of these deaths have been included following the conclusion of coronial investigations – these 7 deaths occurred from 29 December through to 13 January.


So, 39 deaths were reported in the 24 hours to 8pm last night, that’s another pandemic high for deaths in NSW in a 24-hour reporting period. The previous pandemic high was 29 deaths on January 14, 2021.


Of the 46 people who died; 1 person was in their 30s, 1 was in their 40s, 4 were in their 50s, 8 in their 60s, 12 in their 70s, 13 in their 80s, and 7 in their 90s.


30 were fully vaccinated (including 1 who was triple vaccinated), 2 people had received one dose and 14 people were not vaccinated.


Of the 7 people who died aged under 65, all were men. 2 men were fully vaccinated and 5 men were not vaccinated, including the men in their 30s and 40s.


3 of the 5 men were not vaccinated and had significant underlying health conditions.


20 people were from south western Sydney, 5 were from western Sydney, 3 were from Sydney’s south, 2 were from Sydney’s eastern suburbs, 2 were from Newcastle, 2 from northern Sydney, 1 was from Sydney’s Northern Beaches, 1 was from Sydney’s inner west, 1 was from Port Macquarie, 1 was from Coffs Harbour, 1 from Queanbeyan, 1 from the Bega Valley area, 1 from Singleton, 1 from the Jervis Bay area, 1 from Inner Sydney, 1 from Wollongong, 1 from the South Coast and 1 was from the Tweed Heads area.


There have been 344 COVID deaths in NSW in the last 16 days.


There have been 970 COVID-19 related deaths in NSW since this Delta/Omicron outbreak started on June 16, 2021.


At least 52 of the 970 have died at home and 27 of them didn't know they had COVID at the time of death.


377 of the 970 COVID-related deaths in NSW since 16 June 2021 were people who were fully vaccinated.


593 who died were either not vaccinated or had one dose of a vaccine.


The 377 deaths among people fully vaccinated - 2 in their 20s, 1 in their 30s, 2 in their 40s, 1 in their 50s, 14 in their 50s, 22 in their 60s, 110 in their 70s, 136 in their 80s, 85 in their 90s and 4 in their 100s.


20 of the 377 had received their booster shot (1 person in their 30s, 3 in their 70s, 8 in their 80s and 8 in their 90s).


The large majority of the fully vaccinated people who died of COVID had underlying health issues, over half had significant health issues, almost a quarter were in palliative care, many were elderly and in aged care facilities, some had disabilities.



Vaccinated percentages across age groups, including boosters:


In NSW, by the end of today, January 21:


16 years and over: 93.96% fully vaccinated and 95.29% first dose.


12-15 year olds: 78.80% fully vaccinated and 82.29% first dose.


16-19 year olds: 84.9% fully vaccinated and 91.7% first dose.


All 8.2 million NSW residents (aged 0 and over): 80.2% fully vaccinated and 80.7% first dose.


All 25.67 million Australian residents (aged 0 and over): 78.19% fully vaccinated and 82.68% first dose.


Booster: All 25.67 million Australian residents (aged 0 and over), 24.19% have had 3 jabs (was 23.57% yesterday).


All 20.04 million Australian residents (aged 18 and over): 30.44% have had 3 jabs (was 29.67% yesterday).


6,209,400 third (booster) doses have been administered in Australia.


Your third dose starts to work even faster than previous doses. The immune response begins to build within a week of vaccination.


553,400 childrens’ doses have been given in Australia by the end of today. It's 8 weeks between doses. There are 2.25 million children aged 5 to 11.


Roll out for 5-11 year olds started on January 10 and at this rate, 976,000 children, or 43.4% of all Australian children aged 5 to 11, will have had 1 dose by the time school returns (in NSW) on January 31. Efficacy against severe illness for those aged 5-11 is estimated at 80% after the first dose.


5-11 year olds in Australia: 0.00% fully vaccinated and 24.59% first dose (was 22.66% yesterday).



NSW COVID vaccination status of cases during Delta and Omicron outbreak from June 16 until January 21, 2022).


Vaccination status numbers between June 16, 2021 and January 21, 2022 based on NSW Health Surveillance Reports to January 9 and cases since.


970 COVID deaths: 0.2% not eligible for vaccination as aged 0-4 years (2), 48.6% not vaccinated (471 people), 12.4% had received 1 dose (120 people), 38.9% were either fully or triple vaccinated (377 people).


1950 in ICU: 1.1% not eligible for vaccination as aged 0-11 years, 63.1% not vaccinated, 4.1% had received 1 dose, 31.6% were fully vaccinated.


11,472 hospitalised: 4.6% not eligible for vaccination as aged 0-11 years, 40.5% not vaccinated, 3.8% had received 1 dose, 51.1% were fully vaccinated.


912,747 PCR & RAT cases: 18.7% not eligible for vaccination as aged 0-11 years, 10.0% not vaccinated, 4.1% had received 1 dose, 67.2% were fully vaccinated.



How we compare today:


NSW - 25,168 new cases (15,153 PCR and 10,015 RAT) - 2743 in hospital (-38) and 209 in ICU (-3) plus 46 deaths

VIC - 18,167 new cases (10,023 PCR and 8,144 RAT) - 1096 in hospital (-110) and 121 in ICU (-1) plus 20 deaths

QLD - 16,031 new cases (11,222 PCR and 4,809 RAT) - 855 in hospital (+5) and 54 in ICU (+6) plus 13 deaths

SA - 3023 new cases (1891 PCR and 1132 RAT) - 298 in hospital (+8) and 33 in ICU (+4) plus 6 deaths

TAS - 866 new cases (311 PCR and 555 RAT) - 31 in hospital (0) and 3 in ICU (0) plus 1 death

ACT - 826 new cases (259 PCR and 567 RAT) - 62 in hospital (0) and 2 in ICU (-1) plus 2 deaths

NT - 432 new cases (128 PCR and 304 RAT) - 54 in hospital (+6) and 1 in ICU (0)

WA - 10 new cases - 0 in hospital (-0) and 0 in ICU (0)


Australia - 64,529 new cases, 88 new deaths, 644,127 active cases, 5147 in hospital (-130), 424 (+6) in ICU, 132 (-5) on a ventilator.




Big thanks to Kevin Pollard for the research and crunching the numbers.

Our source information - link to NSW Health figures:

https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/find-the-facts-about-covid-19






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