• Kevin Pollard & Tony Bosworth

COVID update - 157 new Hawkesbury cases, 1985 active - big RAT bump expected tomorrow



Welcome to Wednesday evening and the daily update of COVID numbers across our region.


Slightly lower recorded cases today for the Hawkesbury compared to yesterday but 53,909 positive RATs were reported in NSW to 3:30pm today so it's looking like a 80,000 RAT bump for tomorrow's numbers, so at least 100,000 new cases in NSW tomorrow. This service became available at 9am today and NSW numbers for tomorrow will be up until 8pm tonight.


Premier Dominic Perrottet said today: “reporting of positive RAT results is mandatory from those who tested positive via a RAT from January 1. People who fail to register a positive RAT result on the Service NSW App, via the Service NSW website or by calling Service NSW will be fined $1000.”


The Premier then said these new RAT rules, “will be hard to enforce,” so looks like some personal responsibility is required here, folks…


We have 1985 active COVID cases in the Hawkesbury.

Thanks to our good friend Kevin Pollard who has once again crunched the day’s COVID numbers so we have an excellent overview here of the Hawkesbury situation, and further afield too, giving our readers a very detailed picture.



Today’s Hawkesbury and local headlines and numbers:


* 157 new COVID cases recorded in the Hawkesbury today after 304, 204, 236, 208, 165, 159 new cases on previous days.

* 95 of today’s new Hawkesbury cases are linked, so 62 have no known source.


* There are 1985 active Hawkesbury COVID cases.



New Hawkesbury COVID cases in the last 24 hours and postcodes they are in:


* 98 in the 2756 postcode (Windsor, Sackville, Wilberforce, Bligh Park, Clarendon, Ebenezer, Mulgrave, Pitt Town, South Windsor, Freemans Reach, McGraths Hill, Upper Colo, Central Colo, Colo Heights, Lower Portland, Glossodia)

* 31 in the 2753 postcode (Richmond, Richmond Lowlands, Londonderry, Grose Vale, Grose Wold, Bowen Mountain, Hobartville, Yarramundi, Agnes Banks)


* 14 in the 2754 postcode (North Richmond, Tennyson, The Slopes)


* 8 in the 2758 postcode (Bilpin, East Kurrajong, Kurrajong, Kurrajong Heights, Kurrajong Hills, Mountain Lagoon, Wheeny Creek, Mount Tomah, Berambing, Blaxlands Ridge, Devils Wilderness)


* 4 in the 2775 postcode (Lower Macdonald, St Albans)


* 2 in the 2757 postcode (Kurmond)



Total active COVID cases in the Hawkesbury as of 8pm January 11 - and postcodes they are in:


* 1071 in the 2756 postcode (Windsor, Sackville, Wilberforce, etc) - was 1019 yesterday


* 530 in the 2753 postcode (Richmond, Londonderry, Grose Vale, etc) - was 516 yesterday


* 188 in the 2758 postcode (Bilpin, East Kurrajong, etc) - was 185 yesterday


* 175 in the 2754 postcode (North Richmond, Tennyson, The Slopes) - was 166 yesterday


* 22 in the 2775 postcode (Lower Macdonald, St Albans) - was 19 yesterday


* 17 in the 2757 postcode (Kurmond) - was 16 yesterday



* There are 15,074 active cases (was 14,404 yesterday) in the Nepean Blue Mountains Local Health District, which includes the Hawkesbury.


* Of the 34,759 new NSW COVID cases (25,870, 20,293, 30,062, 45,098 cases on previous days) in NSW reported to 8pm, Tuesday, January 11 - 1387 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD.


* There were 134,411 COVID-19 processed tests to 8pm last night, compared with the previous days of 71,325, 84,333, 98,986, 116,915 tests.


* 25.86% of the 134,411 COVID-19 tests were positive (34,759).


* The positivity rates were 36.27%, 24.06%, 30.37%, 38.57% on previous days.



Home and global headlines:


* RATs could be given out to parents at schools, and people could be able to pay for a certain number of tests with a Dine and Discover-style voucher under plans being considered by the NSW Government.


* NSW school holiday care providers are slashing hours and cancelling programs as COVID-19 staffing shortages force hundreds of educators into isolation. Major providers are reporting 25% of their students have withdrawn from holiday care this week. That was on top of bookings already being down 40% to 50% on normal levels.


* Epidemiologist Tony Blakeley told ABC Sydney today, cases have or are now peaking in NSW. Could be up to 200,000 true cases a day now. He predicts a sharp drop and then rumbling along for a while. Hospitalisations will rise until the end of January but there’s hope the Omicron mix reduces ICU risks. He also said Delta was still circulating widely across the country, with 10% to 20% of COVID cases in NSW and VIC being the Delta strain.


* Experts warn that some people in Australia are having 'COVID pox parties', trying to get infected at a time suitable to them — to "get it over with". Epidemiologists are urging Australians to not play "Russian roulette" with their lives and the lives of their loved ones, to be COVID safe and to get extra protection through booster shots. Professor Adrian Esterman says: "We have had fully vaccinated 30-year-olds in NSW who are dying from COVID-19 without any other pre-existing illnesses."


* He said it was incorrect to assume that everyone would get Omicron or the more dangerous Delta, and that people should avoid it at all costs due to the risk of serious illness and Long Covid.

* 40 COVID deaths (49 in total today but 9 were retrospective) in the last 24 hours in Australia, the highest so far during the pandemic. 28 deaths on October 28th 2021 was the previous high. Pandemic record in ICU and in hospital in Australia too.


Kevin says:


"I reckon National Cabinet's 'herd immunity Omicron is mild (for everyone)' strategy isn't going so well now. Most of the world has re-introduced restrictions in the last month yet we've relaxed most of them and cases have exploded."


* WHO says over half of Europe's population could be infected with the Omicron variant by March. “We forecast that more than 50% of the population in the region will be infected with Omicron in the next 6 to 8 weeks” the Regional Director for WHO in Europe, Hans Kluge said.


* The US records another pandemic record of people in hospital (145,872) and also in ICU (24,613). The previous ICU high was 23,912 - January 8, 2021


* France records a pandemic record 368,149 new cases, Italy 220,532 new cases - also a pandemic high.


* India reports 194,720 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since May 2021.


* Reported cases in NSW over the last 5 weeks have been approximately 85% Omicron and 15% Delta.


* NSW Chief Medical Officer, Dr Kerry Chant, said today Omicron is now around 90% of all NSW COVID cases.


* Dr Chant said on December 7, of those in ICU 10% were Omicron and 90% were Delta, as of January 4 of those in ICU, 67% were Omicron and 33% were Delta.


* On January 4 there were 104 in ICU in NSW.


* Today, around 75% of the 175 in ICU in NSW have Omicron (132 people) and 25% Delta (43 people).


* Of the 2242 in hospital in NSW today, it's approximately 80% Omicron (1795), and 20% Delta (447).


* That's far more in ICU and hospital with Omicron than many believed. Not so mild then…


Dr Chant said today that approximately 90% of COVID cases in NSW are now from the Omicron strain.




Current COVID cases in hospital, in ICU, and on a ventilator and vaxx status:


In hospital: 2242 (was 2186, 2030, 1927, 1795 on previous days) - 69.8% fully or triple vaccinated, 2.5% one dose, 27.7% not vaccinated.


In ICU: 175 (170, 159, 151, 145 on previous days) - 49.5% fully or triple vaccinated, 1.2% one dose, 49.3% not vaccinated.


On ventilators: 55 (51, 47, 38, 40 on previous days) of whom require ventilation - 49.5% fully or triple vaccinated, 1.2% one dose, 49.3% not vaccinated.


There were 166 people in hospital 28 days ago - 2,242 today.


There were 21 people in ICU 28 days ago - 175 today.


There were 7 on ventilator 27 days ago - 55 today.



COVID deaths 21 today – none in the Hawkesbury:

NSW Health is reporting the deaths of 21 people with COVID - 17 men and 4 women.


7 of these deaths have been included following the conclusion of coronial investigations – 4 since 23 December 2021, 1 from September 2021 and 2 from October 2021.


1 person was aged in their 30s, 1 in their 40s, 2 in their 50s, 4 in their 60s, 6 in their 70s, 4 in their 80s, 2 in their 90s and 1 aged 100+.


12 were fully vaccinated, 8 were not vaccinated and 1 person had received one dose of a COVID vaccine.


4 people were from south western Sydney, 4 were from the Northern Beaches, 4 were from south eastern Sydney, 1 was from Inner Sydney, 2 were from western Sydney, 2 were from the Newcastle area, 2 from the Wollongong area and 2 from northern Sydney.


There have been 100 COVID deaths in NSW in the last 8 days (21, 11, 18, 16, 9, 11, 6 and 8).


There have been 723 COVID-related deaths in NSW since this Delta/Omicron outbreak started on June 16, 2021.


At least 46 of the 723 have died at home and at least 25 of them didn't know they had COVID at the time of death.


198 of the 723 COVID-related deaths in NSW since 16 June 2021 were fully vaccinated people.


525 of those who have died of COVID were either not vaccinated or had one dose of a vaccine.


The 198 deaths among people fully vaccinated - 1 in their 20s, 7 people in their 50s, 6 people in their 60s, 61 people in their 70s, 67 people in their 80s, 48 people in their 90s and 1 person in their 100s. *4 people in their 80s and 3 people in their 90s had received their booster shots.


The large majority of the people that were fully vaccinated and died of COVID had underlying health issues, over half had significant health issues, almost a quarter were in palliative care, many were elderly and in aged care facilities, some had disabilities.


Of all the 25.67 million Australian residents (aged 0 and over): 15.77% have had 3 jabs (was 15.08% yesterday).


4,048,500 third (booster) doses have been administered in Australia.


Your third dose starts to work even faster than previous doses. The immune response begins to build within a week of vaccination.


139,600 childrens’ doses have been given in Australia by the end of today. It's 8 weeks between doses. There are 2.25 million children aged 5 to 11.


71% of 5-11 doses have been delivered in Primary Care (GPs and Pharmacies).


5-11 year olds in Australia: 0.00% fully vaccinated and 6.20% first dose.



NSW COVID vaccination status (of cases during Delta outbreak from June 16 until January 12, 2022).


Vaccination status numbers between June 16, 2021 and January 12, 2022 based on NSW Health Surveillance Reports to January 9 and cases since.



723 COVID deaths: 0.14% not eligible for vaccination as aged 0-11 years (1), 55.6% not vaccinated (402 people), 15.9% had received 1 dose (115 people), 27.4% were fully vaccinated (198 people), 1% were fully vaccinated with 3 doses ie triple vaccinated (7)


1863 in ICU: 1.1% not eligible for vaccination as aged 0-11 years, 64.4% not vaccinated, 4.2% had received 1 dose, 30.3% were fully vaccinated.


10,631 hospitalised: 4.8% not eligible for vaccination as aged 0-11 years, 41.6% not vaccinated, 3.8% had received 1 dose, 49.8% were fully vaccinated.


530,600 cases: 18.9% not eligible for vaccination as aged 0-11 years, 12.0% not vaccinated, 4.2% had received 1 dose, 64.9% were fully vaccinated.



How we compare today:


Australia records 103,689 cases after 90,832, 71,273, 99,652, 116,032, 78,160 on previous days. On December 9, 2021 Australia recorded 1,651 new cases.


NSW - 34,759 new cases, 333,235 active, 2242 in hospital (+56) and 175 in ICU (+5) plus 21 deaths - 25.86% positive rate

VIC - 40,127 new cases (21,693 PCR and 21,693 RAT), 209,715 active, 946 in hospital (+85) and 112 in ICU (-5) plus 21 deaths - 35.20% positive rate (PCR)

QLD - 22,069 new cases (18,084 PCR and 3,985 RAT) - 130,947 active, 525 in hospital (-4) and 30 in ICU (+3) - 31.39%% positive rate (PCR)

SA - 3715 new cases - (2,978 PCR and 737 RAT) 32,067 active, 190 in hospital (-21) and 27 in ICU (+5) - plus 7 deaths - 15.35% positive rate (PCR)

TAS - 1583 new cases (736 PCR and 847 RAT) - 8,764 active, 22 in hospital (+4) and 0 in ICU (0) - 27.27% positive rate (PCR)

ACT - 1078 new cases - 5,601 active, 23 in hospital (-5) and 3 in ICU (-1) - plus 1 death - 23.11% positive rate

NT - 352 new cases (291 PCR and 303 RAT) - 2,705 active, 28 in hospital (-4) and 1 in ICU (0) - 11.69% positive rate (PCR)

WA - 6 new cases - 103 active, 0 in hospital (0) and 0 in ICU (0)




Big thanks to Kevin Pollard for the research and crunching the numbers.


Our source information - link to NSW Health figures:

https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/find-the-facts-about-covid-19





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